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1.BEHAVIORS THAT CHANGE THE ODDS
Many beginners have made the mistake of Player 2 above: They have only played their cards and never considered why their opponents had been in the hand. As a further example of how behaviors had changed the probabilities, you should consider a hand Sid had played in a now-defunct Prince George’s County Maryland cardroom's.Sid had been playing $5/10 Omaha when a woman had joined the game, sitting to his left, whose play had immediately changed the dynamics of the table (See the Appendix 1 for an explanation of Omaha).
She had played very aggressive poker and had rarely called. Had raised pre-flop, regardless of her position, for almost every hand. Since Sid had sat on her right, he knew that any bet he would have called would have been raised, so he tightened his starting requirements for hands, folding hands he ordinarily would call with, calling with his premium hands and letting her put in the raise for him. He had been the only poker player at the table who had made this adjustment. Everyone else, seeing that her pre-flop raises had conveyed little information, had called her raise.
Soon almost every player at the table had called her pre-flop raise every single hand. With so much money seeding the pot, no one had wanted to fold before seeing the flop. The entry of this one poker player had changed the entire table dynamics, having caused an extremely loose-aggressive game to develop.
In a loose-aggressive poker game, so-called ‘bad beats’ would actually be highly probable. One hand in particular had stood out as an example of how the new table dynamics had distorted the probabilities. Of Sid’s four starting cards, two had been Kings. Sid had called, she had put in her raise,
and every single person at the table (there had been eleven including Sid) had called her raise. The three cards that had come on the flop were King, ace and eight, all of different suits. Sid had bet his set of Kings. She had raised, the man to her immediate left had called her raise, and everyone else had dropped returning the action back to Sid.
Because two players had been u against Sid after seeing the flop, Sid thought it had been likely that each had an Ace and possibly one of them had had an Ace, eight, giving them Aces-over. Sid’s three kings had had to be the top hand so he had re-raised. She had called, a first for her that day, he had called. The turn card had come, a three of the only suit not yet on the board (There would have been no flush possible). Sid had bet, she had called, and he had called.
Her sudden respect for Sid’s bets and his refusal to go away had convinced Sid they both had Aces-over. The river card had been an Ace. Had Sid been going against one poker player, he would have checked. But he know he would not be raised since each of them had to fear the other. Sid had bet his Kings-full (since Sid knew he had had to call with it). If you were to know you were going to call, and do not fear a raise, you should take the initiative and bet.
Your opponents might not hit their poker draw and could fold.Both of them had called and each had turned over an Ace, eight. As the dealer had stacked the chips into two piles in order to split the pot between them, he’s shaken his head in disbelief and said to Sid: ‘That had been the only ??? that could have beat you.’ But how improbable had the last card been being the one remaining Ace? Sid’s two opponents each had four cards and Sid ‘had known’ they each had an Ace.
That had meant there was only one remaining Ace among the thirty-six cards that were not part of their three hands, on the board. The odds had appeared to be one in thirty-six or 2.7%, the fact that had shocked the dealer. However, given the behavior of the poker player at the table, this assessment would not be accurate. You should think about the table dynamics. Every single person had called this woman’s pre-flop raise. When an Ace had showed on the flop, no one holding an Ace would have dropped. Her raise pre-flop had scared no one; neither would her raise after the flop have scared anyone holding an Ace.
The man to her left hadn’t been scared, and with eleven pr-flop raises (110 dollars) in the pot, anyone with a chance to win would have stayed. When the other eight poker players at the table had folded a total of thirty-two cards after the flop, it had meant none of those cards had been an Ace. When the dealer had reached for the river card, only four cards had remained in the deck and one of them had to have been an Ace. The odds of Sid being beaten had been one in four. As the favorite, Sid’s bets and raises had been correct, but his loss had not been a great improbability.
In the previous section, Sid had explained that the distribution of cards to poker players and the board had been completely random events with no memory of the past. However, once the cards had been dealt and the poker players had seen them and acted, events couldn’t have been considered random. The probability of a four falling on the board may have been the same as an Ace, but an Ace would have been much more likely to have paired someone than a four.
To be successful, you would need to put your opponents on hands and play accordingly. You should not think only of your cards and the probability that a random unseen hand could be better. You should always ask yourself, ‘Why are my opponents acting the way they are?’