Counting Their Outs
We’ve seen that the strength of a probable best hand like the top pair or an overpair depends on the collective number of outs that the opponents have, but how do we know how many that is ?
Of course, we usually don’t know, but we can put a bound on it, a range for the number of outs that depends on the size of the field.
As an example, let’s look at the hand we started the chapter with from the perspective of the overpair, the J 
J 
, and the flop of 9 
7 3 
.
If there is only one caller, he could have a hand like J 9 or J 7 , where his number of
effective outs is between two and four, or he could have a hand like A 7 where his effective number of outs is seven.
Other hands are possible, like a gut-shot straight draw or a straight draw.
Of course a flush draw is possible, but it’s unlikely that a flush draw with two overcards would only call.
The range of outs that one callers might have varies between two and nine, with five the most likely number.
A second caller would likely add between five and nine outs. It’s unlikely that you would have two callers whose kicker matches your pair.
So the cumulative number of outs with two callers is between seven and fifteen.
A third callers will probably add between four and five outs, bringing the total to a range of eleven to twenty.
A fourth caller will probably add the same, bringing the total to a range of fifteen to
twenty-five.
If there is a raise, you can probably add the possibility of a very strong draw such as a flush draw with two overcards, bringing the range to about fifteen to thirty outs with a raise and four opponents and a range of about fifteen to twenty outs with a raise from a single caller.
In this case, even if you know you currently have the best hand, it’s probably best to just call if you’re raised because of the likelihood that the total number of outs against you is large enough to make you a money underdog to the field. Theories of poker.
However, until you get that raise, you’re probably a money favorite and should bet this hand.
Just don’t raise with it.
Pick the Right Table / Picking a Seat / Theories of Poker / Betting Theory: The Odds
A Theory of Starting Hand Value
A Theory of Flop Play: Counting Outs and Evaluating Draws
The Dynamics of Game Conditions / Table Image / Player Stereotypes
Women and Poker / Spread-Limit Games / Double Bet on the End Games / Kill Games
Short-handed Games / Tournaments / No-limit and Pot-Limit Poker
