THE FLOP
CHANGES OF AN OVERCARD HITTING THE TURN OR RIVER AFTER A FLOP OF THE TOP PAIR |
|
Top pair holding a |
Percent of the time an overcard falls on the turn or river |
Ace |
00% |
King |
17% |
Queen |
32% |
Jack |
45% |
T |
57% |
9 |
68% |
8 |
77% |
7 |
84% |
6 |
90% |
5 |
95% |
4 |
98% |
3 |
100% |
If you are holding J 
T 
and the flop is J 
7 
3 , then you have the top pair.
You’ve paired the highest card on the board, and the only way anyone could have a higher pair is if they hold pocket Aces, Kings, or Queens.
Note, however, that 45 percent of the time at least one of the next two cards will be an Ace, King, or Queen, which will possibly give another player a higher pair.
These mid ranked top pairs almost always need to be played very aggressively to force players with overcards to fold. Sometimes, however, too much aggression can backfire.
Generally the top pair is a good hand, but this hand isn’t as good as it might look at first glance.
If you’re first to act and bet, then what hands that you can beat might call? Not many actually.
If someone has Q J or K J or A J , then you’re beat. They also have the top pair, but with a better kicker.
You would have a J 9 beat, but hands with kickers smaller than the nine aren’t likely to have been played by most players. Kickers count, and in some cases they count for a lot.
Of course, if you bet you might get calls from players with hands like 7 8 or A 3 .
You might even get calls from players with hands like K Q or similar hands.
Because you don’t want to give players with hands like those a free chance to get a card on the turn that will beat you, you will want to bet this hand with this flop.
If you get called, don’t be too satisfied, and if you get raised, you might well be in big trouble.
You’ll be a lot more comfortable with that flop if you’re in late position and everyone else has checked to you.
You might still be check-raised, but generally you can be a little more certain that you have the best hand.
This is an example of another reason that you will want to be more selective in the hands you play when you’re in early position than when you’re in late position.
Entering a Public Cardroom / The Play of the Game / The First Betting Round
