SCENARIO 70
THE TOTAL BLUFF
You are in the late stage of the tournament with medium stack. The blinds are $300-$900 with a $50 ante. You have about poker $12,000 in chips. Novice Nancy, who has about the same amount of poker chips , limps in under the gun for $900. Passive Paul also limps in from middle position. You are sitting in the cutoff seat with:
You raise it to $2,800. Nancy thinks for a minute and then decides to fold. Paul thinks for a while and then reluctantly calls. You are putting Paul on a mid-range pair, probably tens or nines. Paul has about $14,000 in chips, slightly more than you.
The flop comes:
Paul checks. You decide to try to steal the pot limit holdem by betting $4,000. Paul hesitates some more and finally calls. The 7 ? comes on the turn card game, apparently helping nobody. Paul checks and you check. The river card is the Q ?. Paul checks again.
What's Your Move?
A. Check because we know we can't beat Paul's pair.
B. Move all in
Analysis
You know that you cannot win a showdown with just an ace high low poker hand. You already have over half of your chips in the pot, but you still have enough to make a large bet. The Q ? is another overcard to the pair that you think Paul is holdem poker, plus it is a flush card. This has to be a very scary river card for Paul.
You played the hand as though you either had two big cards in your hand or a flush draw. You didn't make either of those hands, of course, but you would love to have those chips in the middle of the table. They would help your chip position a whole lot.
The Strategy We Suggest
If you just check, you don't think that you can winning principles in a showdown. Paul knows that if he calls and loses, he will be crippled. Your best shot to win this pot and you want it badly is to try a total bluff (B), all the while begging the poker gods, "Please let Paul fold. "
SCENARIO 71
THE TOTAL BLUFF - 2
It is late in the tournament and you have a short stack of $5,000 in chips. The blinds are $300-$6-with a $ 75 ante. That puts $1,575 in the pot before the cards are dealt. The limits are going to increase in a few more hands, so this is the last time you will take the blinds Before they increase. Passive Paul is in the small blind and you are in the big blind extrastuff. Everyone folds to Paul, who calls the additional $300 to complete the bet.
After posting the blinds and the ante, you have $4,325 left in your stack. There is $1,875 in the pot after Paul's call. You look down at your hand and find a "monster" hand-the 7 ? 2 ? the worst starting poker hand in holdem poker!
What's Your Move?
A. Check and hope for a miracle flop
B. Move all in
Analysis
You know that Passive Paul does not have a strong hand or he would have raised your short stack. If you check, you will need a miracle flop to play the hand. If you lose this pot and go through the small blind without winning, you will have less than $4,000 in chips. "If I move in, will Paul call?" you ask yourself. The answer is no. Why? Because if he had a hand good enough to call your all-in raise with, Paul would have raised instead of just calling before the flop understanding.
The Strategy We Suggest
This is the time to take a chance (B) and move all in. Even if Paul calls, sometimes you get very lucky and win. There is a very good chance that Paul will fold because you still have enough chips to make one sizeable raise. The strength of your hand-or the lack of strength and does not matter in this scenario. You are on a total bluff, betting that Paul will fold his hand.