Pokerwiner.com → Within poker principles
WORK ON YOUR HOURLY RATE, NOT YOUR PERCENTAGE OF WINS
Here’s the truth: Suppose there were three winning poker players of differing skill levels. We’ll call their abilities “fair, ” good, ” and “very good.” I’m sure you will agree that, on average, after a large number of hours played each of these players will have made a different amount of money. Obviously, for each that amount will be a function of his individual poker skill level.
Let’s say that they have been playing $20- $40 holdem for 1,000 hours. Perhaps the fair player will have made $10,000, the good player $25,000,and the very good player $40,000. Obviously, since their results occurred over time, each player made a certain amount of money per hour. So it is easy to see that the fair player made $10 per hour, the good player $25 per hour,
and the very good player $40 per hour. Those are their hourly rates. In other words their skill levels are reflected in their hourly rates. Each player plays at a skill level that generates a certain hourly rate. Each player’s hourly rate will determine how much he makes over time.
Because the fair player was playing poker at a skill level adequate to produce $10 per hour he made $10,000 over 1,000 hours. (Of course this example is hypothetical, and the element of chance dictates that he would not likely have made exactly of 10,000 dollars. In all likelihood he would have made somewhat more or less. But the result would almost certainly have been somewhere within a statistically identifiable range around that $10,000 mark. Moreover, 1000 is not an especially large number of hours. A larger number would more surely produce a result which more accurately reflected his skill level. I use 1,000 hours simple to make my point). Without increasing his skill, (Which includes not just the elements of his play, but also his ability to stay off tilt, his skill at poker game selection, his ability to avoid marathon sessions, and other such factors), there was nothing he could have done to insure making more money over those thousand hours.
Because he played at a level of skill sufficient to produce exactly $10 per hour, his total profit over a large enough number of hours would inevitably be consistent with that hourly rate. If you want to make more at poker in the next year you must improve your hourly rate, or put in more hours at your present rate. But stop wins, no matter how you might use then, are not going to help. Of course they won’t hurt much either – at least not over a given number of hours. What you make over a given number of hours will be determined by what you are able to make per hour, your hourly rate. (*They may hurt a little because quitting early when you are winning often means quitting when you are playing your best and your image is at its most effective, enabling you to win more easily.)
That is determined by your skill, which remains the same whether you hit and run or not. Note however, that using stop wins will reduce the amount you make during any extended period. This is because repeatedly stopping before you would otherwise means you play fewer total hours. Fewer hours of winning play means less money made. If you do not play through such periods you miss out on those times when your hourly rate is likely at its highest. To be thorough I will mention that there are, in fact, occasions when quitting with a small win can make sense. If the win will break a losing streak, for example, its emotional benefits for you may outweigh other considerations.
(Similarly, which the notion of a stop loss [ when game conditions are favorable and you are still able to play well] is fallacious as well, you might also choose to wait until you lose a pot or two before you quit a mediocre omaha online poker game that you really don’t want to play in but where you happen to be getting lucky, and thus have an intimidation factor temporally working for you.)
My purpose here is not to discount this or similar exceptions, but rather to contribute to the debunking of any idea that a money management notion such as the stop win can, in and of itself, actually improve your results over a given number of hours.
"The Best Player I' ve Ever Seen " / The Hit and Run Follies / An Illusory Winner /
On Randomness, Rushes, Hot Seats, and Bad Luck Dealers / Bad Beat? Think Again
Why Learn to Beat Tougher Games? / Practicing Game Preservation
Short-Handed Play: Don’t Miss out / How I Learned Poker: Part I
How I Learned Poker : Part II